In New York, a Rift in Jewish Politics

Rep. Dan Goldman and Rep. Jerry Nadler’s neighboring New York City congressional districts are home to more Jews than virtually any other districts in the US. But the terms of debate over Israel in the competitive Democratic primaries for both seats are starkly divergent.

Nadler is retiring after more than 30 years in Congress representing a congressional district which is the single most Jewish in the country, covering much of Manhattan, including the Upper East and Upper West Side. The leading candidates to take his seat—state assemblymembers Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, and social media influencer and Kennedy scion Jack Schlossberg—appear to be less critical of Israel than Nadler himself, who told The New York Times in September that Israel had committed war crimes in Gaza, and that he planned to join efforts to block the sales of offensive weapons to Israel. Of the three, only Schlossberg now supports stopping sales of offensive weapons to Israel, though his positions on the issue have been inconsistent over the course of the race, and Schlossberg has repeatedly touted the US-Israel relationship.

In Goldman’s district, meanwhile, the fourth-most Jewish in the US, which includes parts of Park Slope and Brooklyn Heights known as “brownstone Brooklyn,” the apparent frontrunner is Brad Lander, the former city comptroller and mayoral candidate, who has aligned with the progressive wing of the Democratic Party on Israel policy. Lander opposes all US military aid to Israel until Israel complies with international law, labels Israel’s destruction of Gaza a genocide, and supports the Block the Bombs act, which would halt the sale of certain weapons to Israel.

It’s the latest manifestation of the two Jewish New Yorks put on display in the mayoral election last fall, when Zohran Mamdani’s campaign was buoyed by the support of the Jewish left, even as older and wealthier Jews supported his opponent, Andrew Cuomo. In the mayoral race, Cuomo took NY-12, while Mamdani won NY-10. Now, Lander appears to be winning Goldman’s NY-10 by courting a younger Jewish population with looser ties to legacy Jewish institutions, and by running on a left-wing foreign policy platform. In Nadler’s NY-12, where Jews are older and more tightly affiliated, no one has grabbed that left lane.

“It’s electoral suicide [in NY-12] to go for a full on arms embargo, or [to say the US should] stop funding for Iron Dome,” said Adam Carlson, a Democratic pollster.

While most American Jews do not say Israel is the determining factor in their votes, 91% of American Jews say Israel’s military operations in Gaza are a significant issue for them personally, and the issue is a frequent topic of debate on the campaign trail in both districts.

National polls show that younger American Jews have been far more critical of Israel’s response to the October 7th attacks than older American Jews, and the Jews in Goldman’s district are younger than the Jews in Nadler’s. In the brownstone Brooklyn neighborhoods of NY-10, the average age of the Jewish population is 41, according to a 2023 UJA-Federation of New York study. On the Upper East and Upper West Sides, in the Nadler district, the average Jewish person is 50, according to the same survey.

The generational differences are more stark when you look at the demographics of voters expected to turn out for the upcoming primaries. According to data on expected voter turnout supplied to Jewish Currents by the Honan Strategy Group, over half of likely voters in NY-12 will be over 65. In NY-10, the Goldman district, just 35% of voters are expected to be seniors.

Jews in NY-12 also report tighter ties to Jewish institutional life, another demographic marker that research has shown correlates closely to support for Israel. In the brownstone Brooklyn neighborhoods in NY-10, just 16% of Jewish adults are synagogue members, compared to 35% on the Upper West Wide and the Upper East Side in NY-12, according to the 2023 UJA study. And while only 1% of Jewish households with children send a kid to Jewish day school in brownstone Brooklyn, 22% do in the Manhattan neighborhoods.

In NY-10, Lander appears to be leading against Goldman by taking positions—like his support for the Block the Bombs act or his use of the word “genocide” to describe Israeli actions in Gaza—that align him with the most progressive candidates in Democratic primaries across the US. “Israel’s prosecution of the war in Gaza is deeply disturbing to middle class Jewish communities [in the district], and I think Brad’s going to win those votes,” said John Mollenkopf, the director of the City University of New York’s Center for Urban Research.

In NY-12, though, it’s a different story. “When you factor in the age of institutional figures in Democratic clubs and donor networks, you’re going to see a much stronger line of conservatism in New York 12 than you’re going to see in New York 10,” said Chris Sosa, a Democratic political strategist. “It makes it a lot easier for a candidate in New York 10 to take a clearly critical position of Israel and not see a dip in support from the institutions and funding networks around them.”

That’s left progressives in NY-12 with no top-tier candidate aligned with the left in their district. Neither Lasher, Bores, nor Schlossberg support the Block the Bombs act. Schlossberg has come closest to the progressive position, saying he is “unsure” about Block the Bombs. In an interview on the local television station NY1 on Wednesday, Schlossberg said he supports halting sales of offensive weapons to Israel, but backs continuing to use US aid to pay for the Iron Dome missile defense system. (There is also a lower-polling candidate in the NY-12 race, Nina Schwalbe, who says Israel committed a genocide.)

“They’re attempting to appeal to the oldest voters, but they are taking positions that are wildly unpopular with young people,” said Sosa.